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Super Poll Sunday Pregame: Polls Show Midwest Shift for Biden in Wisconsin, Nebraska's 2nd District, and Vigo County, Indiana

The final Emerson College poll before the November 3rd election finds the former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump 53% to 45% in Wisconsin. Two percent (2%) of voters plan to vote for someone else, and one percent are still undecided. Since last month's Emerson Wisconsin poll, Biden's lead over the President has increased by a point. 


Independent voters in Wisconsin are breaking for Biden 54% to 39%. Biden has a lead among suburban voters, 56% to 40%, and urban voters 58% to 41%. Trump has a lead among rural voters 52% to 45%. 

The majority (52%) of Wisconsin voters disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president while 45% approve of the job he is doing. 

Voters were asked how much of a public health threat they think coronavirus is and the majority (53%) think it is a major threat while 24% say it is a moderate threat, 16% think it is a minor threat and 7% think it is not a threat. The majority (88%) of those voting for Biden think it is a major threat while a plurality (39%) of those voting for Trump think it is a moderate threat. 

The plurality (31%) of Wisconsin voters say the economy is the most important issue in deciding their vote for president, followed by COVID-19 response with 18%, social justice with 14%, healthcare with 13%, climate change with 7% and the supreme court with 4%. 

Among Trump voters, the majority (59%) say the economy is the most important issue. Biden voters are split between COVID-19 response (32%), healthcare (20%), social justice (19%), and climate change (11%). 

Caller ID

The Wisconsin Emerson College poll was conducted October 29-30, 2020. The sample consisted of likely Democratic, Republican, and Independent voters, n=751, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.5 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, party affiliation, race and region based on 2016 voter turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, ethnicity, and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines (n=434), SMS-to-web texts (n=173), and an online panel provided by MTurk (n=144).


Nebraska 2020

The latest Emerson College poll in the second congressional district of Nebraska shows Joe Biden with 50% leading Donald Trump 47%. 2% are undecided and 2% plan to cast their ballot for someone else. 


Biden has a narrow one point lead among independent voters, 46% to 45%. Biden and Trump are tied with 48% respectively among white voters but Biden leads 59% to 40% among non-white voters in the second district. 

In the congressional race, Republican incumbent Don Bacon leads Democratic challenger Kara Eastman, 50% to 47%. 


President Trump’s approval in the second district is split, 49% approve and 49% disapprove of the job he is doing as president.

Voters were asked how much of a public health threat they think coronavirus is and the majority (49%) think it is a major threat while 27% say it is a moderate threat, 17% think it is a minor threat and 7% think it is no threat at all. 

The majority (78%) of those voting for Biden think it is a major threat while Trump voters are more split: 42% say it is a moderate threat and 33% say a minor threat.

The plurality (37%) of voters in the second district say the economy is the most important issue in deciding their vote for president, followed by COVID-19 response with 13%, healthcare with 11%, social justice with 11%, climate change with 7% and the supreme court with 6%. 

Among Trump voters, the majority (66%) say the economy is the most important issue. 

Biden voters are split between COVID-19 response with 24%, healthcare with 18%, social justice with 19%, the economy with 10% and climate change with 10%. 

Caller ID

The Nebraska 2nd District Emerson College poll was conducted October 29-30, 2020. The sample consisted of likely Democratic, Republican, and Independent voters, n=806, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.4 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, party affiliation, race, and region based on 2016 voter turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, and ethnicity, carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines (n=513) and SMS-to-web texts (n=293).


Indiana 2020: Vigo County

In Vigo County, Indiana, President Donald Trump and Vice President Joe Biden are tied, each with 48% support. No voters reported remaining undecided and 3% plan to or have already voted for someone else. Vigo County has predicted every presidential winner all but two times (1952 and 1908) since 1888, and Donald Trump won this county by 14% in 2016.



Biden leads Trump among Independent voters in Vigo County 50% to 44%. 

President Trump has an approval rating of 49% amongst Vigo voters. 

The most important issue for Vigo County voters is the economy at 38%. 

The plurality (45%) of Vigo County voters think Coronavirus is a major threat to public health in the United States, 27% think it is a moderate threat, 20% think it is a minor threat and 7% said no threat at all. The majority (78%) of those voting for Joe Biden think Coronavirus is a major threat while the plurality (38%) of Trump voters think it is a minor threat. 

Caller ID

The Vigo County Emerson College poll was conducted October 29-31, 2020. The sample consisted of likely Democratic, Republican, and Independent voters, n=500, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 4.3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, party affiliation, and race based on 2016 voter turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity, and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using SMS-to-web texts (n=500).

Key Takeaways
  • Biden expands his lead in Wisconsin
  • Biden narrowly leads Nebraska's second congressional district
  • Dead heat in bellwether Vigo County, Indiana
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