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Super Poll Sunday: Biden with Slight Lead over Trump in Pennsylvania; Maine’s Second District Competitive

The final Emerson College poll before the November 3rd election in Pennsylvania finds the former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump 50% to 46%. Two percent (2%) of voters plan to vote for someone else and 2% are undecided. Since the last Emerson Pennsylvania poll, Trump has gained one-point, and Biden has held his support.



Biden has a lead among suburban voters, 55% to 36%, and urban voters 57% to 36%. Trump has a lead among rural voters 65% to 31%. The majority (58%) of Pennsylvania voters who did not vote in 2016 are voting for Biden and the majority (56%) of those who voted for someone else in 2016 say they are voting for Biden this cycle.   

The majority (50%) of Pennsylvania voters disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president while 46% approve of the job he is doing. 

Voters were asked how much of a public health threat they think coronavirus is and the plurality (49%) think it is a major threat while 31% say it is a moderate threat, 13% think it is a minor threat and 7% think it is no threat at all. The majority (84%) of those voting for Biden think it is a major threat while the plurality (49%) of those voting for Trump think it is a moderate threat. 

The plurality (33%) of Pennsylvania voters say the economy is the most important issue in deciding their vote for president, followed COVID-19 response with 21%, healthcare with 11%, social justice with 13%, climate change with 8% and the supreme court with 3%. 

Among Trump voters, the majority (60%) say the economy is the most important issue. 

Biden voters’ most important issue is more split, between COVID-19 response (35%), healthcare (16%), social justice (19%), and climate change (13%).

Caller ID

The Pennsylvania Emerson College poll was conducted October 29-30, 2020. The sample consisted of likely Democratic, Republican, and Independent voters, n=823, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, party affiliation, race and region based on 2016 voter turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity, and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines (n=462), SMS-to-web texts (n=206), and an online panel provided by MTurk (n=154).


Maine 2020

The final Emerson College poll before the November 3rd election in Maine finds the former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump 54% to 43%. Three percent (3%) of voters plan to vote for someone else and 1% are undecided. 


Biden is leading President Trump in the first district by 19 points, 58% to 39%. In the second district, Biden leads by 3 points, 50% to 47%.

Democrat Sara Gideon leads incumbent Senator Susan Collins 48% to 42%. Five percent (5%) plan to vote for independent Lisa Savage and one percent plan to vote for independent Max Linn. Four percent are undecided and one percent plan to vote for someone else. 



Among Savage and Linn supporters, 61% choose Gideon as their second choice while just 14% have Collins as their second choice, the rest list no one or someone else as their second choice candidate.

The majority (54%) of Maine voters disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president while 43% approve of the job he is doing. 

Voters were asked how much of a public health threat they think coronavirus is and the majority (56%) think it is a major threat while 20% say it is a moderate threat, 18% think it is a minor threat and 6% think it is no threat at all. The majority (91%) of those voting for Biden think it is a major threat while the plurality (41%) of those voting for Trump think it is a minor threat. 

The plurality (35%) of Maine voters say the economy is the most important issue in deciding their vote for president, followed by COVID-19 response with 19%, healthcare with 10%, social justice with 10%, climate change with 9% and the supreme court with 4%. 

Among Trump voters, the majority (71%) say the economy is the most important issue while the plurality (35%) of Biden voters say COVID-19 response is the most important issue. 

Caller ID

The Maine Emerson College poll was conducted October 29-31, 2020. The sample consisted of likely Democratic, Republican, and Independent voters, n=611, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/-3.9 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, party affiliation, race and region based on 2016 voter turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity, and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines (n=384) and SMS-to-web texts (n=227).




Key Takeaways
  • Sen. Collins trailing Gideon in Maine US Senate race
  • Biden leads by 4 in Pennsylvania
  • Majority of Maine voters and plurality of Pennsylvania voters see COVID-19 as a major threat
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