The latest Emerson College/The Hill poll finds a majority (63%) of New York voters think former Governor Andrew Cuomo should not re-enter public office, while 24% think he should and 14% are unsure. That said, if former Gov. Cuomo does challenge Gov. Hochul in the Democratic primary, a hypothetical ballot test shows him trailing Hochul just by four points, 37% to 33%, with 9% undecided and a combined 21% voting for other candidates.
Cuomo holds the highest support among Black voters in the Democratic primary for governor: 59% of Black Democratic voters would support Cuomo in the primary. Hochul holds more support among White (51%) and Hispanic (50%) Democratic voters.
When the ballot test is asked without former Gov. Cuomo, Hochul leads the Democratic primary with 42%, followed by Jumaane Williams with 10%, Tom Suozzi with 7%, and Paul Nichols with 5%. Twenty-seven percent (27%) are undecided.
Voters trust the findings of Attorney General James’ investigation into Cuomo’s sexual harrassment allegations 59% to 23%, however, when compared to August 2021, trust in the investigation has fallen from 64% to now 59%, and distrust has increased eight points, from 15% to 23%.
The majority of voters (60%) think the investigation was a serious attempt to find out what really happened while 38% say it was politically motivated. However, this margin shrinks among Democratic voters, as only 54% think it was a serious attempt, with 43% saying it was politically motivated.
If Cuomo were to seek the Attorney General’s office, he trails James by a wider margin of 12 points, 45% to 33%.
Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling says, “While voters trust the investigation’s findings and do not want Cuomo to re-enter office, he still holds significant support among a base of Democratic primary voters.”
In the Republican primary for Governor, Congressman Lee Zeldin leads with 27%, followed by Andrew Giuliani (17%), Rob Astorino (11%), Harry Wilson (6%), Michael Carpinelli (5%), Derrick Gibson (3%), and Kris Lord (1%). A significant 23% are undecided and 7% plan to vote for someone else.
While James and Hochul lead their primaries, their support is not as strong across the state. “Hochul’s low approval signals a competitive general election if she is the nominee,” Kimball continues, “her 57% approval among Democratic voters is not promising for a primary and 24% approval among independents reflects poorly on her general election performance.”
Governor Hochul’s approval is split: 41% disapprove and 40% approve of the job she is doing as governor. Hochul’s approval is at 57% among Democrats, 21% among Republicans, and 24% among Independents.
Attorney General Letitia James’s approval is slightly underwater at 39% disapproval and 35% approval; 22% are unsure.
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The Emerson College/The Hill New York poll was conducted March 9-10, 2022. The general election sample consists of voters in New York, n=1,000 with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3 percentage points. The Democratic primary sample consists of registered Democratic voters in New York, n=504, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 4.3 percentage points. The Republican primary sample consists of registered Republican voters in New York, n=225, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 6.5 percentage points.The data sets were weighted by age, education, race, and region based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity, and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using an online panel provided by Amazon MTurk, and an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines.
