Following court-ordered redistricting in New York, an Emerson College Polling/Pix11/The Hill survey of likely Democratic primary voters in the newly drawn 10th and 12th Congressional Districts finds a 77% majority undecided in the 10th District, and Carolyn Maloney leading Jerry Nadler by 10 points in the 12th District.
While a majority of voters in the 10th District spanning Brooklyn and Lower Manhattan are undecided, 7% support sitting 17th District US Rep. Mondaire Jones, 6% support former Mayor Bill DeBlasio, and 5% support New York City Assemblymember Yuh Line Niou.
Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling said, “Driving DeBlasio’s low support in the primary may be his job approval among his former constituents: 21% of 10th District Democratic voters approve of the job that DeBlasio did as Mayor of New York City, while 64% disapprove. The high share of undecided voters are unlikely to turn towards DeBlasio as 69% of undecided voters disapprove of the job he did as their mayor.”
In the redrawn 12th Congressional District that spans both the Upper East Side and West Side, long-time Representatives Carolyn Maloney and Jerry Nadler contend for the same seat. Among likely voters, Maloney leads Nadler 31% to 21%, with 36% undecided.
“Maloney’s support is stronger with female voters,” Kimball continued, “a 35% plurality of female voters back her in the Democratic primary, while male voters are more split: 26% support Maloney and 22% support Nadler.”
A majority of voters in both districts find it important that a candidate for US House lives in the district they are running in: 87% in the 10th District and 86% in the 12th District find their residence in the district very or somewhat important.
Twenty-eight percent (28%) of Democratic primary voters in the 10th District approve of the job Eric Adams is doing as New York City Mayor while 46% disapprove. Adams’ approval is lower in the 12th: 23% approve and 54% disapprove of the job he is doing as mayor.
For voters in the 10th and 12th Districts, crime dominates as the top issue facing New York City: in the 10th District, 33% say crime is the top issue facing the city, followed by the economy at 18%. In the 12th District, 40% think crime is the most important issue facing the city, followed by the economy at 23%.
Voters in both districts are concerned about the level of hate crimes in their community: 89% in the 10th and 12th respectively say they are very or somewhat concerned. Data was collected following the shootings in Buffalo, New York and Uvalde, Texas.
In general, 82% of those in the 10th District and 78% of those in the 12th District feel very or somewhat safe in their neighborhood. On the subway, however, a lesser 50% in the 10th District and 45% in the 12th District feel very or somewhat safe taking the subway.
New York City Democratic voters were asked to rate the quality of the public transportation systems. In the 10th District, 36% rate the quality of the public transportation system in their area as good, 32% rate it as fair, 20% as excellent, and 12% as poor.
Similarly, in the 12th District, 40% rate the quality of the public transportation system in their area as good, 33% rate it as fair, 17% as excellent, and 11% as poor.
The Emerson College Polling New York Congressional polls of Democratic voters in the 10th and 12th Districts were conducted May 24-25, 2022. The 10th District sample consisted of somewhat or very likely Democratic voters, n=500, with a margin of error (MOE) of +/- 4.3 percentage points. The 12th District sample consisted of somewhat or very likely Democratic voters, n=500, with a margin of error (MOE) of +/- 4.3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines and a cellphone sample using SMS-to-web.