An Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill poll of very likely New York voters finds incumbent Governor Kathy Hochul with a 57% majority of support in the Democratic Primary, followed by Tom Suozzi with 17% and Jumaane Williams with 6%. Twenty percent are undecided. When undecided voters are asked who they are leaning towards and allocated, Hochul’s support increases to 63%, Suozzi to 25%, and Williams to 11%.
“While Hochul holds a majority support among all voters over 30, the Governor’s support is weakest among 18-29 year old Democratic primary voters: 29% plan to support her in the primary,” Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling noted.
In the Republican primary for Governor, Congressman Lee Zeldin holds a double-digit lead over his closest competitor with 34%. Rob Astorino follows with 16%, trailed by Harry Wilson at 15% and Andrew Giuliani at 13%. Twenty-two percent (22%) are undecided. When undecided voters are asked who they are leaning towards and allocated, Zeldin’s support increases to 40%, Astorino to 23%, Wilson to 20%, and Giuliani to 17%.
“Zeldin’s support in the primary is strongest among suburban voters,” Kimball continued: “Zeldin has 39% support among suburban Republican primary voters, whereas Giuliani is strongest with city voters with 25% support. Among rural voters, Zeldin leads with 29% followed by Wilson with 23%.”
Among Democratic primary voters, Hochul has a 59% job approval, while 26% disapprove of the job she is doing as Governor and 14% are unsure. Among Republican primary voters, 76% disapprove of the job Hochul is doing as Governor, 16% approve, and 8% are unsure. Conversely, 67% of Democratic primary voters approve of the job Joe Biden is doing as President, 26% disapprove, and 7% are unsure. President Biden has an 83% disapproval among Republican voters, 15% approve of the job he is doing.
Eighty-nine percent (89%) of Democrats are very or somewhat concerned about gun violence in New York, compared to 79% of Republicans who are very or somewhat concerned about gun violence in New York.
Regarding the cause of gun violence, voters were asked what they consider the main cause of gun violence: mental health issues, gun access, both, or neither. A majority, 51%, of Democratic primary voters think it is both mental health and gun access, 30% think it is gun access, and 14% think it is mental health issues; 6% say neither. A plurality, 46%, of Republicans say mental health is the main cause, 27% think it is both mental health and gun access, 10% say gun access, and 17% say neither.
A majority, 54%, of Democrats expect the rate of inflation to be higher than it is now, whereas a more significant majority of Republicans, 80%, think the rate will be higher. Conversely, 15% of Democrats and 6% of Republicans think it will be lower; 31% of Democrats and 14% of Republicans expect it to be about the same.
Regarding the seven-month suspension of the New York gas tax, a majority, 52%, of Democrats think the tax does not go far enough to combat inflation, compared to 75% of Republicans who say the suspension does not go far enough; 21% of Democrats think it goes far enough, compared to 8% of Republicans, while 8% of Democrats and Republicans respectively think it goes too far.
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The Emerson College Polling New York poll was conducted June 9-10, 2022. The Democratic primary consisted of 500 very likely Democratic primary voters, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 4.3 percentage points. The Republican primary consisted of 500 very likely Republican primary voters, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 4.3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, and race based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, ethnicity, and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using a cellphone sample of SMS-to-web, an online panel, and an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines.
