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New Hampshire 2020 Tracking Poll Night 6: Sanders Continues to Lead as Buttigieg Inches Closer

Day 6 of the 7 News/ Emerson College tracking poll of the New Hampshire Democratic Primary finds Sen. Bernie Sanders holding his lead in the Democratic Primary with 31%, followed by fmr. Mayor Pete Buttigieg with 24%, Sen. Elizabeth Warren and fmr. V.P. Joe Biden with 11%, and Sen. Amy Klobuchar with 9%. No other candidate is above 5%. Data was collected February 6-7, 2020, mixed mode, n=500, margin of error of +/- 4.3%. 


Since yesterday, Sanders has lost one point, Buttigieg has gained one point (an overall 11 point increase since Emerson College’s first New Hampshire Tracking poll five days ago), Warren has lost two points, and Biden and Klobuchar have held their support. 


Respondents were asked if they would definitely vote for their preferred candidate or if there was a chance they could change their mind. Overall 63% said they will definitely vote for their candidate and Sanders’ supporters are the most committed as 90% said they will definitely vote for him. Of the other top candidates, 64% of Biden supporters, 63% of Warren supporters, and 47% of Buttigieg supporters are committed to their respective candidates. 

Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson College Polling explains, “many voters are still on the fence on who they will support but that does not include Sanders supporters, which means that the other candidates won’t be able to pull any of his vote which leaves them fighting amongst themselves”.

Continuing the trend found in the past Emerson College tracking polls, Sanders pulls very strong support from younger voters. Among voters under 50 years old, he leads with 44% support followed by Buttigieg with 17%, and Warren with 13%. Among voters 50 and over, Buttigieg leads at 31%, followed by Sanders at 20%, Biden at 17% and Warren at 14%.

Sanders holds a strong lead among “very liberal” voters garnering 51% support among that group. Following Sanders among those very liberal voters is Warren at 24%, and Buttigieg at 12%. Among “somewhat liberal” voters, Sanders also leads with 43% followed by Buttigieg with 22%, Warren with 11% and Biden with 9%. And among “moderate” or “conservative” voters, Buttigieg holds the lead with 29% support. Following him among those voters is Biden with 15%, Sanders with 14% and Klobuchar with 13%.

In the first congressional district, 36% of voters support Sanders, followed by Buttigieg with 21%, Biden with 12%, and Warren with 11%. In the second district, 26% of voters support Sanders and Buttigieg, 12% support Warren, and 11% support Biden. 

Voters were asked again to pick a candidate, regardless of who they are going to vote for, who they expect to be the Democratic nominee. Sanders led this question with 42%, followed by Buttigieg and Biden at 19% and Bloomberg at 7%. Since yesterday, Biden has decreased on this question by three points, Sanders has gained one point, Buttigieg held his support and Bloomberg gained three points. 


For the questions of the day, voters were asked if they are more or less enthusiastic to vote in this primary compared to previous primaries. A majority (62%) said that they are more enthusiastic, 13% said they are less enthusiastic and 25% said they feel about the same level of enthusiasm. 

Additionally, respondents were asked whether having a woman on the presidential ticket would make them more or less likely to support that ticket. Twenty-six percent (26%) said it would make them more likely, 3% said it would make them less likely and 71% said that it would not matter to them. They were asked the same question in regards to having an African-American or Hispanic candidate on the ticket. Fourteen percent (14%) said that would make them more likely, 4% said it would make them less likely, and 82% said that it would not matter. 


Caller ID

The New Hampshire 7 News/ Emerson College poll was conducted February 6-February 7, 2020. The sample consisted of registered Democratic and Independent likely voters, n=500, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 4.3 percentage points. The data was weighted based on gender, age, education, region, and based on 2016 turnout model. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=332), cell phones (n=99) and online panels provided by MTurk (n=68).

Key Takeaways
  • Buttigieg and Biden now tied in expected nominee question
  • 37% still could change their mind before the primary
  • Majority of Democrats are more enthusiastic about this primary than those in the past
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Many voters are still on the fence on who they will support but that does not include Sanders supporters, which means that the other candidates won...
Professor Spencer KimballDirector of the Emerson Poll
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