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New Hampshire 2020 Tracking Poll Night 5: Sanders Holds Lead in New Hampshire, Buttigieg Continues to Gain

Day 5 of the 7 News/ Emerson College tracking poll of the New Hampshire Democratic Primary finds Sen. Bernie Sanders maintaining his lead in the Democratic Primary with 32%, followed by fmr. Mayor Pete Buttigieg with 23%, up two points since yesterday’s tracking poll, Sen. Elizabeth Warren with 13%, fmr. V.P. Joe Biden with 11%, and Sen. Amy Klobuchar with 9%.


Since yesterday, Sanders has gained one point, Buttigieg has gained two points (an overall ten-point increase since Emerson College’s first New Hampshire Tracking poll four days ago), Warren has gained one point, Biden has lost another point, and Klobuchar has lost two points, putting her below 10%. 


Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson College Polling explains, “This is beginning to turn into a two-person race in New Hampshire between Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg. All eyes will be on Warren, Biden, and Klobuchar at the debate on Friday night to see if any of them can create a game-changing moment for their campaigns.” 

Continuing the trend found in the past Emerson College tracking polls, Sanders pulls very strong support from younger voters. Among voters under 50 years old, he leads with 44% support followed by Buttigieg with 17%, and Warren with 13%. Among voters 50 and over, Buttigieg leads at 31%, followed by Sanders at 20%, Biden at 17% and Warren at 14%

Voters were asked again to pick a candidate, regardless of who they are going to vote for, who they expect to be the Democratic nominee. Sanders led this question with 41%, followed by Biden at 21%, and Buttigieg at 18%. Since yesterday, Biden has decreased on this question by five points and Buttigieg has decreased by one point. 

Sanders holds a strong lead among “very liberal” voters garnering 46% support among that group. Following Sanders among those very liberal voters is Warren at 32%, and Buttigieg at 11%. Among “somewhat liberal” voters, Sanders also leads with 43% followed by Buttigieg with 20%, Warren with 12% and Biden with 11%. And among “moderate” or “conservative” voters, Buttigieg holds the lead with 31% support. Following him among those voters is Sanders with 16%, Biden with 13%, and Klobuchar with 12%.

In the first district, 37% of voters support Sanders, followed by Buttigieg with 24%. In the second district, 26% of voters support Bernie Sanders, 22% support Buttigieg, and 16% support Warren. 

For the questions of the day, voters were asked about the motivation of Senator Mitt Romney’s decision to vote to convict President Trump: if it was out of personal conviction or a political calculation. The majority of Democratic Primary Voters (64%) said it was out of personal conviction, 21% thought it was a political calculation, and 15% were unsure. Voters were also asked if the handling of the impeachment matter by the House and Senate Democrats made them more or less likely to vote for Democratic candidates in the year 2020. The plurality of New Hampshire Democrats (48%) said it made them more likely to vote for Democrats, 14% said it made them less likely to vote for Democrats, and 38% said it had no effect. 


Caller ID

The New Hampshire 7 News/ Emerson College poll was conducted February 5-February 6, 2020. The sample consisted of registered Democratic and Independent likely voters, n=500, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 4.3 percentage points. The data was weighted based on gender, age, education, region, and based on 2016 turnout model. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=318), cell phones (n=119) and online panels provided by MTurk (n=62).

Key Takeaways
  • Biden continues to fall in the expected nominee question
  • Plurality of NH Democratic Primary voters say impeachment makes them more likely to vote Dem in 2020
  • Sanders leads with voters under 50; Buttigieg leads those over 50
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This is beginning to turn into a two-person race in New Hampshire between Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg. All eyes will be on Warren, Biden, and...
Spencer KimballEmerson College Polling director
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