A new Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll of Georgia finds U.S. Senator Raphael Warnock trailing likely Republican nominee Herschel Walker 49% to 45% with 6% undecided. (n=1,013 +/-3% MM)
Walker leads the field of Republican candidates for the nomination with 57% of the vote, his closest competitor is Gary Black at 13%; 16% are undecided. Warnock leads the Democratic Senate primary with 85%, 10% are undecided.
In the race for Governor of Georgia, incumbent Brian Kemp has an 11-point lead over former Senate candidate David Perdue, 43% to 32%; 17% are undecided. In a potential runoff should neither Kemp or Perdue receive 50%, Kemp bests Perdue 44% to 39% while 16% are undecided.
A plurality (38%) of Republican primary voters say Trump’s endorsement of Perdue makes them more likely to support Perdue, 30% said it made them less likely and 32% said it made no difference. However, “a majority (58%) of undecided Republican gubernatorial primary voters say Trump’s endorsement of Perdue has no impact on their vote,” noted Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling.
Looking ahead to the November general election, Brian Kemp leads Stacey Abrams 51% to 44% with 5% undecided in hypothetical ballot tests. Against David Perdue, Abrams trails 44% to 49% with 7% undecided.
Kimball said, “Abrams holds the majority of support in the general election among voters under 50, while Kemp and Perdue have a strong majority of voters over 50. Abrams’ chances in November depend in large part on whether or not these younger voters turnout.”
A significantly larger portion of Republican primary voters are undecided in the race for Secretary of State at 37%. The incumbent Brad Raffensperger leads his Trump backed primary challenger Jody Hice 29% to 26%.
A majority (52%) of voters think Georgia runs fair elections. Thirty percent (30%) think it does not, and 18% are undecided. “A majority (69%) of Biden voters think the state runs fair elections while a plurality (41%) of Trump voters think it does not run fair elections,” Kimball said.
President Joe Biden has a 42% approval in Georgia while 49% disapprove of the job he is doing as President. Governor Brian Kemp has a split approval: 42% approve and 42% disapprove of the job he is doing as Governor.
Forty-nine percent (49%) of Georgia voters think marijuana should be legal for recreational purposes in the state of Georgia, while 38% think it should not be. A majority (57%) of Democratic primary voters support recreational legalization while a plurality (49%) of Republican primary voters oppose.
Regarding gambling legality in Georgia, a plurality (43%) of voters think gambling on professional sports should be legal in Georgia while 38% think it should not be. Regarding gambling on college sports, a plurality (46%) think it should not be legal and 36% think it should be.
Methodology
The Emerson College/The Hill Georgia poll was conducted April 1-3, 2022. The general election sample consisted of registered voters in Georgia, n=1,013 with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3 percentage points. The Republican primary sample consisted of likely voters, n=509, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 4.3 percentage points. The Democratic primary sample consisted of likely voters, n=453, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 4.6 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, race, and region based on 2020 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity, and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using a cellphone sample of SMS-to-web, an online panel provided by Amazon MTurk, and an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines.
